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Title: HIMS Stock: Profitability or Hype? A Data DiveAlright, let's talk about Hims & Her... Title: HIMS Stock: Profitability or Hype? A Data Dive
Alright, let's talk about Hims & Hers (HIMS). The narrative is strong: a telehealth company hitting profitability early, positioned in high-growth markets like sexual health and weight loss (thanks, GLP-1s). But as any data analyst knows, narratives are cheap. It's the numbers that matter. And the numbers, well, they're a mixed bag.
Revenue Growth vs. Profit Reality
HIMS is undoubtedly growing. Q3 2025 revenue clocked in at nearly $600 million, a 49% year-over-year jump. Subscribers are up 21%, nearing 2.5 million. CEO Andrew Dudum is talking about "tens of millions" accessing personalized care. Ambitious? Sure. Achievable? That’s what we need to figure out.
Here's where the skepticism kicks in. Net income for Q3 2025 was $15.8 million. Sounds good, right? Except, Q3 2024 showed a whopping $75.6 million. The official explanation is a $60.8 million tax benefit in 2024 related to releasing a tax valuation allowance. Okay, one-off events happen. But stripping out that benefit paints a less rosy picture.
What about profitability? HIMS touts its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization). For Q3 2025, it's $78.4 million, up 53% year-over-year. CFO Yemi Okupe emphasizes "strong, profitable growth." But adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure. (Meaning: not standardized accounting. Companies have leeway in how they calculate it.) Hims & Hers Health, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results
The biggest adjustment? Stock-based compensation. In Q3 2025, that was a hefty $40.2 million. Take that out of the equation, and suddenly that $78.4 million Adjusted EBITDA looks a lot less impressive. It's like saying you're losing weight, then admitting you're wearing lead shoes on the scale.
And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. Why the focus on adjusted metrics that conveniently exclude real costs? I've looked at hundreds of these filings, and the reliance on adjusted EBITDA always raises an eyebrow.
The GLP-1 Gamble
HIMS is betting big on GLP-1s (the active ingredients in drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy) for weight loss. They're even in talks with Novo Nordisk (the maker of Wegovy) to distribute their injectable and oral formulations. That's a potentially massive market. But it's also a crowded one.
The analyst community is split. Ten out of 15 analysts covering HIMS rate it a "Hold," with a consensus "Reduce" rating. The average 12-month price target is $45.27, suggesting a 24.51% upside from the current price. But, and this is a big but, short interest stands at a significant 37.54% of the company’s float. (Float being the number of shares available for public trading.)
That's a lot of people betting against HIMS.
The company itself acknowledges the uncertainty around the Novo Nordisk deal. "Discussions are ongoing, no definitive agreement has been executed…there is a possibility that no definitive agreement may ever be executed." In other words: don't count your chickens before they hatch.
The projected growth rates in the sexual health, hair thinning, and telehealth markets are enticing. (Grand View Research projects CAGRs of 10.4%, 10.85%, and 24.68% respectively.) But those are projections, not guarantees. And HIMS isn't the only player in those spaces.
Debt and Dilution
HIMS's balance sheet is…complex. They have a convertible senior notes offering of $970 million. (Convertible notes are a form of debt that can be converted into equity.) On the one hand, it's good they're raising capital. On the other, convertible notes can lead to dilution (reducing the value of existing shares) if those notes get converted.
The company also repurchased $9.5 million of its own stock. Now, share buybacks are often seen as a sign of confidence. But in this case, it feels like a drop in the bucket compared to the potential dilution from those convertible notes.
Smoke and Mirrors?
HIMS has a compelling story, but the data requires careful parsing. The revenue growth is real, but the profitability picture is muddied by accounting adjustments and reliance on non-GAAP metrics. The GLP-1 opportunity is significant, but also uncertain and competitive. And the balance sheet, while not disastrous, isn't exactly pristine.
The key question: is HIMS building a sustainable, profitable business, or is it a growth story built on hype and financial engineering?
So, What's the Real Story?
I remain unconvinced. The level of short interest alone should give investors pause. HIMS isn't a bad company, but it's priced like a great one. And the data simply doesn't support that valuation, not yet.